那么为什么说这个项目其实不靠谱呢?原因有两条,首先是可控核聚变发电的要求过于苛刻。任何一个不明真相但是有一定物理学基础的人都能明白,核聚变其实相当于一个人造的小太阳,它的温度可能达到上亿度,操作或者设计稍有不慎的话,这个“太阳”真的可以做到神挡杀神,佛挡杀佛,反应堆一定瞬间玩玩。 到底人类有没有可能在地球上玩转“人造太阳”这种反自然的项目,在科学家们的看法并不一致。其次就是这个项目的参与者有7方共计三十多个国家,每个国家都只能完成其中的某个部分,因此对管理水平的要求也可能是空前绝后的。即便大家精诚合作,也难免因为某几个步骤的失误而影响到整体进度,就更不用说一旦牵扯核能项目会造成的其他影响因素了。 所以不出意料,ITER项目目前不仅在进度上落后了计划十几年,同时还要增加预算,这个人类核能史上最大的项目到底还能不能进行下去,在未来几周里面可能就会有个说法。 在建中的ITER,但是到反应堆开堆可能还要至少等上十年。 参考资料: [1]http://www.nei.org/Knowledge-Center/Nuclear-Statistics/World-Statistics. [2]S. M. Feinberg,"Discussion Comment", Rec. of Proc. Session B-10, ICPUAE, UnitedNations, Geneva, Switzerland (1958). [3]L. P.Feoktistov, "An analysis of a concept of a physically safe reactor",Preprint IAE-4605/4, in Russian, (1988). [4]Edward Teller,Muriel Ishikawa, Lowell Wood, Roderick Hyde, John Nuckolls, "CompletelyAutomated Nuclear Reactors for Long-Term Operation II : Toward A Concept-LevelPoint-Design Of A High-Temperature, Gas-Cooled Central Power Station System(Part II)", Proc. Int. Conf. Emerging Nuclear Energy Systems, ICENES'96,Obninsk, Russia (1996) UCRL-JC-122708-RT2. [5]H. van Dam,"The Self-stabilizing Criticality Wave Reactor", Proc. Of the TenthInternational Conference on Emerging Nuclear Energy Systems (ICENES 2000), p.188,NRG, Petten, Netherlands (2000). [6]H. Sekimoto, K.Ryu, and Y. Yoshimura, "CANDLE: The New Burnup Strategy", Nuclear Scienceand Engineering, 139, 1-12 (2001). [7]Xue-NongChen ,Werner Maschek,Transverse buckling effects on solitary burn-up waves,Annals of Nuclear Energy 32 ,1377–1390(2005) [8]Xue-NongChen, Edgar Kiefhaber, Dalin Zhang, Werner Maschek,Fundamental solution ofnuclear solitary wave,Energy Conversion and Management,59,40–49(2012). [9]Dalin Zhang,Xue-Nong Chen, Michael Flad, Andrei Rineiski, Werner Maschek,Theoretical andnumerical studies of TWR based on ESFR core design,Energy Conversion andManagement,72,12-18,(2013). [10]ITERPhysics Basis Editors. "Chapter 6: Plasma auxiliary heating and currentdrive". Nucl. Fusion. ITER Physics Expert Group on Energetic Particles,Heating and Current drive 39: 2495(1999). [11]科学松鼠会——核电安全吗?(http://songshuhui.net/archives/39533) |
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